U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

امروز
فردا
Day Three

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acus01 kwns 170544 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 170542 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1142 PM CST Wed Jan 16 2019 


Valid 171200z - 181200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the lower 48 states 
through tonight. 


... 
A progressive flow regime will continue over the contiguous U.S. 
Through tonight. A mid-level speed Max will move from northern California 
into the Desert Southwest as an associated trough amplifies over the 
Great Basin late. Scant buoyancy associated with the western U.S. 
Disturbance will lead to widely spaced convective activity shifting 
east from parts of California into the Great Basin. Farther east, a weak 
disturbance over the Ozark Plateau early this morning will shift 
eastward across the mid-south during the day. A couple of lightning 
flashes are possible with the deeper convection. 


.Smith/leitman.. 01/17/2019 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 130855 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 130854 
mdz000-vaz000-dcz000-131300- 


Mesoscale discussion 0019 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0254 am CST sun Jan 13 2019 


Areas affected...central Virginia and Maryland...including southern 
portions of the Washington D.C./Baltimore Metro area 


Concerning...heavy snow 


Valid 130854z - 131300z 


Summary...moderate to heavy snow now developing across parts of 
central Virginia and Maryland is expected to persist through mid to 
late morning, with rates (around or in excess of 1 inch per hour) 
likely maximizing in the 6-10 am EST time frame. 


Discussion...a broadly cyclonic 50-70+ kt 500 mb jet streak 
continues to gradually develop eastward across the northern Gulf 
Coast states, with its exit region now beginning to nose to the Lee 
of the southern Appalachians, toward the southern mid Atlantic coast 
through mid to late morning. It appears an associated broad area of 
strong upward vertical motion will include a period of strengthening 
lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis across Virginia and adjacent 
portions of the mid Atlantic. 


Across central Virginia into adjacent portions of central Maryland, 
where temperature profiles are expected to remain entirely below 
freezing, models indicate that lift may begin to become maximized 
within the favorable mixed-phase layer for dendritic ice Crystal 
growth by daybreak, and continue through mid to late morning. Aided 
by relatively high precipitable water content (up to around .70 
inches), one or more bands of heavy snow, at rates around or in 
excess of 1 inch per hour, appear possible. Forecast soundings 
suggest that this may persist for a 3-4 hour period at any 
particular location, generally in a narrow corridor from the 
vicinity of the Blue Ridge, north of Roanoke VA, east/northeastward 
through southern portions of the greater Washington D.C./Baltimore 
metropolitan area. 


.Kerr.. 01/13/2019 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...phi...akq...lwx...rnk... 


Latitude...Lon 38287888 38517861 38657841 38977644 38497624 37937809 
37697891 37767939 38087930 38287888