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marine weather discussion...retransmitted
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
110 PM EST Tue 2 Dec 2008
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
An earlier 1109z Quikscat pass and the latest sfc obs FM buoy
41002 confirm that the sfc low now invof 33n74w has nwly gale
force winds over its immed W semicircle. The 12z GFS rmns very
consistent with its prev respective runs in fcstg this sfc low
to race off to the NE tonite into Wed with gale force ascd bl
winds contg to afct the ern most nt2 wtrs...well beyond the
adjacent cstl wtr domains. So no sig chngs are planned to the
prev ofshr fcsts rgrdg this system.
In the longer range...the 12z mdls are in good agrmt in rgrds to
a cold front sliding ofshr late Thu/Thu nite. In comparison with
its new parallel run...the 12z NAM looks too weak and
progressive with this fropa. Wl instead cont to favor the timing
of the GFS...which is sprtd by the 12z namp/Gem/UKMET and old
00z ECMWF. Wl also cont to favor the stronger (up to 25 or 30
kt) ascd fcst gradients invof this front of the 12z namp/GFS
which wl require making only minor tweaks to the prev ofshr
fcsts. So again no major long range chngs are planned to the
prev ofshr fcst package rgrdg this fropa.
Further out in the long range...sun...the latest mdls differ
sigly in rgrds to both the timing and fcst strength of an upr
S/W trof sliding se to vcnty of the srn new engld/nrn mid Atlc
coast late sun. In comparison to its prev 06z run...the 12z GFS
fcsts a weaker sfc low movg ofshr into the srn nt1 wtrs later on
sun. The 12z Gem/UKMET and to a lesser degree the 00z ECMWF are
mr progressive than the 12z GFS. The 12z gefs ensemble members
hv too much spread at this time to draw any definitive
conclusions. Per coord with HPC...plan on favoring a blended
06z/12z GFS solution for this system. Per this blended
solution...unless the 12z ECMWF comes in radically
different...attm wl lkly fcst nwly gales dvlpg sun in the wake
of this sfc low and its cold front thrut the nt1 and acrs the
nt2 wtrs N of hat cnyn wtrs.
Overall the 12z wna wavewatch iii fcst seas look representative.
Since a smwht mr progressive solution wl be anticipated for sun
wl lkly build seas a ltl higher than fcst by the mdl bhnd the
low and cold front.
.Warnings/forecast confidence...Reliminary. Any changes will be
coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Nt1 New England waters...
.Gulf of Maine...gale sun...low confdc.
.Georges Bank...Gale sun...low confdc.
.S of New England...Gale sun...low to mod confdc.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters...
.Hudson to balt cnyn...gale sun...low to mod confdc.
.Balt cnyn to Hague line...Gale tonight E...low to mod confdc.
Gale sun...low confdc.
.Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...Gale tonight far E...mod
confidence. Gale sun...low to mod confdc.
.Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...Gale tonight E...mod to hi confdc.
.Cape Fear to 31n...Gale tonight far E...hi confdc.
.Forecaster vukits. Ocean forecast branch.
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